Primeiro Grécia. Depois Portugal. Agora Irlanda. Semana passada a União Européia voltou a negociar títulos com a finalidade de financiar Portugal e Irlanda. Duas colocações de títulos em dois dias... Titulos com curto prazo de vencimento auxiliam a obter taxas de juros menores.
A preocupação em financiar a dívida com juros baixos decorre do recente rebaixamento da Irlanda pela Standard & Poors.
A agência Fitch publicou também semana passada um relatório comparando as dividas de Portugal e Irlanda.
A necessidade de ajuste e geração de superávit para pagamento da dívida sinaliza um longo período de dificuldades econômicas e políticas.
Também na semana passada, o governo Irlandes manteve sua recusa em elevar tributos sobre as empresas com a finalidade de manter a competitividade e possibilitar uma recuperação econômica. Atualmente, as taxas Irlandesas são as mais baixas da Europa, tornando os produtos Irlandeses mais competitivos em relação aos seus vizinhos.
sábado, 28 de maio de 2011
XVIII FORUM BRASIL EUROPA
O XVIII Forum Brasil Europa busca refletir sobre os atuais desafios e possibilidades de cooperação. O evento é organizado pela Fundação Konrad Adenauer, em parceria com o Grupo Parlamentar Brasil-União Europeia e o Instituto de Relações Internacionais da Universidade de Brasília (Irel-UnB), sob o suporte da Delegação da União Europeia no Brasil.
O evento acontecerá nos dias 15 e 16 de junho de 2011, Brasília/DF
Detalhes sobre o evento podem ser obtidos através do link:
http://www.kas.de/wf/doc/3266-1442-5-30.pdf
O evento acontecerá nos dias 15 e 16 de junho de 2011, Brasília/DF
Detalhes sobre o evento podem ser obtidos através do link:
http://www.kas.de/wf/doc/3266-1442-5-30.pdf
segunda-feira, 23 de maio de 2011
Coordenação Monetária Internacional
O Banco Mundial, em seu relatório "Development Horizons 2011 - Multipolarity: The New Global Economy" aponta para três cenários possíveis:
- A continuidade do dólar como moeda de reserva;
- Uma polarização (entenda-se competição entre moedas) monetária : Euro, Renminbi e o Dólar;
- A polarização pode conduzir a uma alteração e substituição do dólar por uma moeda de reserva que, traduzindo literalmente, chamariamos de moeda multilateral. A moeda internacional multilateral seria emitida como resposta a um esforço de coordenar sua equivalência a uma cesta de moedas (euro, renminbi, dólar).
O caso Europeu nos dá lições sobre as dificuldades e vantagens na emissão monetária como esforço coordenado entre nações e aponta para a motivação em manter o dólar como moeda de reserva. Some-se a isto o fato de uma desvalorização do dólar representar perdas significativas para os detentores de reservas em ativos denominados em dólar.
Diante do atual cenário, a internacionalização monetária é uma estratégia perseguida por China e Brasil. Ambos os países buscaram criar sistemas monetários locais como forma de ampliar a demanda por moeda extra fronteiras. Além disso, a criação de ativos denominados na moeda nacional e a constituição de mercados consumidores para estes ativos consolida a internacionalização monetária.
Vale a pena ler o relatório do Banco Mundial e a avaliação sobre a internacionalização do Renminbi: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTGDH/Resources/GDH-AdvanceEd-CompleteBook.pdf!
- A continuidade do dólar como moeda de reserva;
- Uma polarização (entenda-se competição entre moedas) monetária : Euro, Renminbi e o Dólar;
- A polarização pode conduzir a uma alteração e substituição do dólar por uma moeda de reserva que, traduzindo literalmente, chamariamos de moeda multilateral. A moeda internacional multilateral seria emitida como resposta a um esforço de coordenar sua equivalência a uma cesta de moedas (euro, renminbi, dólar).
O caso Europeu nos dá lições sobre as dificuldades e vantagens na emissão monetária como esforço coordenado entre nações e aponta para a motivação em manter o dólar como moeda de reserva. Some-se a isto o fato de uma desvalorização do dólar representar perdas significativas para os detentores de reservas em ativos denominados em dólar.
Diante do atual cenário, a internacionalização monetária é uma estratégia perseguida por China e Brasil. Ambos os países buscaram criar sistemas monetários locais como forma de ampliar a demanda por moeda extra fronteiras. Além disso, a criação de ativos denominados na moeda nacional e a constituição de mercados consumidores para estes ativos consolida a internacionalização monetária.
Vale a pena ler o relatório do Banco Mundial e a avaliação sobre a internacionalização do Renminbi: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTGDH/Resources/GDH-AdvanceEd-CompleteBook.pdf!
segunda-feira, 16 de maio de 2011
Incertezas no ar
Em ambiente de extrema insegurança no mercado financeiro internacional, em que crescem as dívidas, o contágio e as soluções expansionistas se revelam limitadas, o Diretor do FMI Dominique Strauss-Kahn é acusado de atacar uma camareira em um hotel em Nova York...
O que terá feito Dominique para não estar "blindado" neste momento....?
Crescem neste momento as especulações quanto ao futuro do Diretor e uma possível sucessão. A Europa se candidata a fazer as indicações para sucessor. Temos que concordar com a declaração de Angela Merkel de que considerando a crise na região, há boas razões para a indicação de um candidato Europeu. Sendo justa, as palavras utilizadas pela Chanceler Alemã foram "escolha" de um candidato Europeu em lugar de "indicação".
O que terá feito Dominique para não estar "blindado" neste momento....?
Crescem neste momento as especulações quanto ao futuro do Diretor e uma possível sucessão. A Europa se candidata a fazer as indicações para sucessor. Temos que concordar com a declaração de Angela Merkel de que considerando a crise na região, há boas razões para a indicação de um candidato Europeu. Sendo justa, as palavras utilizadas pela Chanceler Alemã foram "escolha" de um candidato Europeu em lugar de "indicação".
domingo, 15 de maio de 2011
European Institutes for Advanced Study - Eurias
Termina dia 31 de maio o prazo para inscrições para o programa de bolsas Eurias (European Institutes for Advanced Study). As bolsas tem duração de 10 meses para pesquisadores junior e senior. Maiores informações no link abaixo.
http://www.2012-2013.eurias-fp.eu/call-applications-0
http://www.2012-2013.eurias-fp.eu/call-applications-0
quinta-feira, 12 de maio de 2011
Discussão Temática - Eurozone
O PROGRAMA DE ESTUDOS PÓS-GRADUADOS EM ECONOMIA da FEA –PUCSP, através do Grupo de Estudos Políticas para o Desenvolvimento Humano – PDH (site: http://www.pucsp.br/desenvolvimento_humano/)convida a discutir o tema/ trabalho "THE EUROZONE BETWEEN AUSTERITY AND DEFAUT" de - C Lapavitsas el al.
Apresentação de Áquilas Mendes.
Dia 23 de maio de 2011, Sala 119 do Edificio Reitor Bandeira de Mello, às 11:15h.
Apresentação de Áquilas Mendes.
Dia 23 de maio de 2011, Sala 119 do Edificio Reitor Bandeira de Mello, às 11:15h.
sábado, 7 de maio de 2011
Bolsa Konrad Adenauer em Estudos Europeus no Centro de Relações Internacionais da FGV
O Centro de Relações Internacionais da Fundação Getulio Vargas, sediado no CPDOC, está selecionando um(a)pesquisador(a) para receber a Bolsa Konrad Adenauer em Estudos Europeus. A bolsa oferecida é de R$ 1.500,00 e tem duração de 12 meses. As atividades ocorrerão no Rio de Janeiro, mas haverá intensa cooperação com a coordenação do CPDOC em São Paulo.
Veja mais em : http://mundorama.net/
Veja mais em : http://mundorama.net/
terça-feira, 3 de maio de 2011
A European Opening for the Arab World
2011-05-02
A European Opening for the Arab World
BERLIN – The people of Tunisia and Egypt have shown that democracy in Arab countries need not come at the barrel of a Western gun. But, while the drive for democratic change has been local and authentic, there is no guarantee of a successful political transition: democratically elected governments will have to address the same social and economic problems that contributed to the old regimes’ fall – not least the need to create jobs and opportunities for the young.
This will be impossible without external support. Given the myriad links between the European Union countries and the Mediterranean’s southern rim, Europe must not miss this opportunity.
So far, the EU has offered to support democratization in Tunisia and Egypt by helping to organize free and fair elections, establish political parties, and reform the police, courts, and local administrations. But such political-administrative support is not enough. Nor is a Marshall Plan-type program of grand investments sufficient.
This is not to discount the need for such projects; the renewable-energy sector, in particular, holds enormous opportunities for cooperation. Europe needs clean energy, and will not be able to produce enough on its own territory. The countries of North Africa also need energy – particularly more electricity and new networks to support urban and industrial development.
Indeed, the availability of uninterrupted electricity often makes the difference between, say, a shoemaker’s workshop and a shoe factory. And these countries have the most suitable environment for solar thermal power production. According to some optimistic studies, solar thermal power plants and wind farms in North Africa could not only boost economic growth there, but also provide more than 15% of Europe’s electricity by 2050. Obviously, cooperation agreements and private investment in this sector should be encouraged.
The problem is that such long-term investments bring results only in the medium and long term. They do not address today’s social or economic problems, nor do they signal a new society-oriented approach by Europe towards its Mediterranean neighbors.
New EU programs should mainly aim at strengthening the specific capacities of Tunisia, Egypt, and others, and seek opportunities that benefit both sides of the Mediterranean. Catherine Ashton, the EU’s vice-president and high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, has proposed a Partnership for Democracy and Shared Prosperity with the Southern Mediterranean, which contains a host of useful measures, including facilitation of visas for students, academics, and business people.
But, to make this scheme more concrete, I would suggest augmenting it with a “pact for labor and skills” between the EU and the Arab countries that choose a path to democratic transformation.
Europe, while afraid of illegal migration, needs foreign labor for its own demographic reasons – not least young engineers, technical staff, doctors, and health-care workers. Tunisia, Egypt, and the other Southern Mediterranean countries have an abundance of young people with degrees and no jobs, who often also need to acquire practical skills. This is most urgent for the Arab world’s baby boomers – those between 20 and 35. The next generation is already smaller.
As a practical step, the EU and its member states should offer 30,000 visas and work permits annually for graduates from participating Mediterranean countries. Such a program would include, first, a traineeship in European firms, followed by the opportunity to work in Europe for 5-8 years. At the end of that period, participants would receive soft business-startup loans from European development banks to create employment in their countries of origin.
Designed for at least a 15-year period, such a program would be a strong signal in itself. It would show young people from Tunisia, Egypt, and other transformation countries that there are other options than getting on a boat to the Italian island of Lampedusa. It would be a real incentive to finish one’s university education (indeed, it should be augmented by investment in vocational schools, technical high-schools, and universities in North Africa and the Middle East).
Once implemented, the labor pact would help to change attitudes towards Arab immigrants in Europe – and Europe’s image in the Southern Mediterranean. It would likely create lasting ties between people and economies. And it would address real needs in the Southern Mediterranean countries – improving professional skills, reducing the pressure on the local labor market, creating businesses and jobs – as well as in Europe.
Some warn against any programs for “temporary” or “circular” migration. To be sure, some who benefit would want to stay. But, while this “burden” might, in fact, benefit aging European countries, the risk is relatively low in the first place: Arab countries entering such a pact would be better governed than they were under the previous regimes. If they become consolidated democracies, as hoped, would-be entrepreneurs could stop worrying so much about official corruption. And start-up loans from Europe would make it much easier to seek one’s fortune back home.
Such an approach needs to be communicated both to the European public and to the people of Tunisia, Egypt, and other Arab countries. It would reverse the pattern whereby Europe relies on repressive regimes to supply it with oil and gas and guard its borders against migrants. At long last, these countries’ demographic wealth would be used to meet their development needs.
Volker Perthes is Director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2011.
www.project-syndicate.org
A European Opening for the Arab World
BERLIN – The people of Tunisia and Egypt have shown that democracy in Arab countries need not come at the barrel of a Western gun. But, while the drive for democratic change has been local and authentic, there is no guarantee of a successful political transition: democratically elected governments will have to address the same social and economic problems that contributed to the old regimes’ fall – not least the need to create jobs and opportunities for the young.
This will be impossible without external support. Given the myriad links between the European Union countries and the Mediterranean’s southern rim, Europe must not miss this opportunity.
So far, the EU has offered to support democratization in Tunisia and Egypt by helping to organize free and fair elections, establish political parties, and reform the police, courts, and local administrations. But such political-administrative support is not enough. Nor is a Marshall Plan-type program of grand investments sufficient.
This is not to discount the need for such projects; the renewable-energy sector, in particular, holds enormous opportunities for cooperation. Europe needs clean energy, and will not be able to produce enough on its own territory. The countries of North Africa also need energy – particularly more electricity and new networks to support urban and industrial development.
Indeed, the availability of uninterrupted electricity often makes the difference between, say, a shoemaker’s workshop and a shoe factory. And these countries have the most suitable environment for solar thermal power production. According to some optimistic studies, solar thermal power plants and wind farms in North Africa could not only boost economic growth there, but also provide more than 15% of Europe’s electricity by 2050. Obviously, cooperation agreements and private investment in this sector should be encouraged.
The problem is that such long-term investments bring results only in the medium and long term. They do not address today’s social or economic problems, nor do they signal a new society-oriented approach by Europe towards its Mediterranean neighbors.
New EU programs should mainly aim at strengthening the specific capacities of Tunisia, Egypt, and others, and seek opportunities that benefit both sides of the Mediterranean. Catherine Ashton, the EU’s vice-president and high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, has proposed a Partnership for Democracy and Shared Prosperity with the Southern Mediterranean, which contains a host of useful measures, including facilitation of visas for students, academics, and business people.
But, to make this scheme more concrete, I would suggest augmenting it with a “pact for labor and skills” between the EU and the Arab countries that choose a path to democratic transformation.
Europe, while afraid of illegal migration, needs foreign labor for its own demographic reasons – not least young engineers, technical staff, doctors, and health-care workers. Tunisia, Egypt, and the other Southern Mediterranean countries have an abundance of young people with degrees and no jobs, who often also need to acquire practical skills. This is most urgent for the Arab world’s baby boomers – those between 20 and 35. The next generation is already smaller.
As a practical step, the EU and its member states should offer 30,000 visas and work permits annually for graduates from participating Mediterranean countries. Such a program would include, first, a traineeship in European firms, followed by the opportunity to work in Europe for 5-8 years. At the end of that period, participants would receive soft business-startup loans from European development banks to create employment in their countries of origin.
Designed for at least a 15-year period, such a program would be a strong signal in itself. It would show young people from Tunisia, Egypt, and other transformation countries that there are other options than getting on a boat to the Italian island of Lampedusa. It would be a real incentive to finish one’s university education (indeed, it should be augmented by investment in vocational schools, technical high-schools, and universities in North Africa and the Middle East).
Once implemented, the labor pact would help to change attitudes towards Arab immigrants in Europe – and Europe’s image in the Southern Mediterranean. It would likely create lasting ties between people and economies. And it would address real needs in the Southern Mediterranean countries – improving professional skills, reducing the pressure on the local labor market, creating businesses and jobs – as well as in Europe.
Some warn against any programs for “temporary” or “circular” migration. To be sure, some who benefit would want to stay. But, while this “burden” might, in fact, benefit aging European countries, the risk is relatively low in the first place: Arab countries entering such a pact would be better governed than they were under the previous regimes. If they become consolidated democracies, as hoped, would-be entrepreneurs could stop worrying so much about official corruption. And start-up loans from Europe would make it much easier to seek one’s fortune back home.
Such an approach needs to be communicated both to the European public and to the people of Tunisia, Egypt, and other Arab countries. It would reverse the pattern whereby Europe relies on repressive regimes to supply it with oil and gas and guard its borders against migrants. At long last, these countries’ demographic wealth would be used to meet their development needs.
Volker Perthes is Director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2011.
www.project-syndicate.org
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